Traditional theories
argue that the strength of selection against phenotypic deterioration
should decrease progressively with age after maturity. Using optimization
models, Vaupel et al (2004, Theoretical Population Biology 65: 339-351)
and Baudisch (2008, Inevitable Aging? Springer) showed that performance
could however continue to increase for some time after maturity and argued
that senescence is not inevitable. A growing number of studies have provided
anecdotal support for the new theory by reporting improvements in age-specific
survival probability and fertility after maturity, although these results
have not been used to formally test this theory. I propose to challenge
the theory with data to provide insight on selection for post-maturational
enhancement. In particular I hope to investigate the processes that have
shaped this particular strategy. Although there is mounting evidence for
post-maturational enhancement it does not appear to be sufficient for
most species to indefinitely delay senescence, and one pressing question
beyond characterizing the prevalence and strength of post-maturational
enhancement is for how long a period does it last. Second, does post-maturational
enhancement occur in both survival and fertility, in particular the probability
of reproduction, the number of eggs, the number of hatchlings or the number
of fledglings?
There are trade-offs
at multiple levels of biological organization that shape all aspects of
life-history. Different fields tend to focus on one level: demographers
and evolutionary ecologists often characterize trade-offs at the phenotypic
and demographic level using optimization methods, while quantitative geneticists
characterize trade-offs using genetic variance-covariance matrices. After
I have characterized the prevalence and magnitude of post-maturational
enhancement across a range of populations I hope to examine how working
at different levels of biological organization provide insight into the
processes that have moulded the evolution of post-maturational enhancement.
Clearly this research will involve a mixture of statistical modeling and
theory development. Long-lived birds offer an ideal group of organisms
to address these questions. Currently I am identifying data sets that
would allow me to address one or both aspects of my planned research.
Tim
Coulson from Imperial College London and James
W. Vaupel from the Max Planck
Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) jointly supervise my project.
I am funded by a MPIDR studentship. |